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dongrave · Joined: 06 Mar 2014 Posts: 568

Hi Marty, I know you were wondering to yourself "When is that Don guy going to complain?" I know you were! Not me! Not this time of the year! No, sirree. I was wondering though what the world record is for the fewest VH's in a month. And you know what else? If we don't get a VH tomorrow, that'll make it the 12th consecutive day - which will officially put the odds over 1 in a million! That's the problem with these darn computer generated 'random numbers'. I once played a game of backgammon against a computer and I didn't get a 6 for 17 straight throws. That would never happen throwing real dice. ugh.

Marty R. · Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:27 am Post subject:

Don, I wasn't thinking about you complaining, but the long non-VH streak is very noticeable, maybe a record.

dongrave · Joined: 06 Mar 2014 Posts: 568

I have a tendency to exaggerate sometimes ("over 1 in a million"). After I posted that I began wondering what the real odds were. We know that the day after the VH could not be a VH and then for the next 11 days there was a 2/3 chance of it not being a VH (because it could also not be the same rating as the day before) so I guess that would put the real odds at around 1% (i.e. 2/3 raised to the 11th power). Still pretty unusual but I do have to stop exaggerating so much. What I found even more unusual is that every other day this month has been a 'Hard'.

Marty R. · Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:19 pm Post subject:

dongrave · Joined: 06 Mar 2014 Posts: 568

How did you know that I was a mathematician Marty? I never said that, did I? Anyway, I'm not a 'real' mathematician (my dad was the math genius, not me). I got a degree in math but I ended up in the computer industry instead.

Oh well, enough about that. This month's H's are something! At first glance I thought to myself 'Okay, 9 H's in a row - and it hit every time that it was possible - with a 1 out of 3 chance each time - and it hit 9 times in a row - so 1/3 raised to the 9th power is... Hmmm, my calculator must be screwed up. 5 out of 100,000 which is 1 out of 20,000? That's insane. (Far worse than my backgammon game.) Hey! Wait a minute! The 1st day of the month wasn't 1 out of 3; it was 1 out of 4 which would make the odds even worse? That can't be right. That works out to 1/4 multiplied by (1/3 raised to the 8th power) which equals 3.8 x 10 to the negative 5th power?' That can't be right! That's really insane! Could someone out there check my math and correct me if I'm wrong?

Marty R. · Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2015 2:35 am Post subject:

I can't check it. All I know is the VH thing is now up to 2/3 to the 12th power.

I don't know how to calculate the chances of the H phenomenon. I'll let you know if I figure something out.

dongrave · Joined: 06 Mar 2014 Posts: 568

We don't come to this site for you to check for math errors Marty! We come here for your Sudoku expertise! Thanks!